Evaluating the effects of land use changes on stream-flow patterns in the semi-arid region of Nigeria
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.65221/0080Keywords:
Keywords: Land use management; Streamflow Pattern; Semi-Arid Region; Water ResourcesAbstract
This study seeks to examine, model, and predict future changes in land use and land cover (LULC), as well as to observe their effects on streamflow patterns and behavior in a semi-arid area of northwestern Nigeria. Using remote sensing and GIS, LULC for the years 1990, 2000, and 2020 was mapped and classified, while the Cellular Automata (CA)–Markov model is used to forecast future LULC changes for 2040. The trend and pattern of streamflow in relation to LULC changes over the selected decades were evaluated via Mann-Kendall trend test and Inverse Distance Weighting (IDW). The LULC changes indicate a significant rise in construction land use, mainly at the expense of water and forest areas. The temporal connections between land use changes and streamflow variations suggest that the decade from 1990 to 2000 saw a rapid expansion of construction-related land use, coinciding with a period of high streamflow. This indicates an increase in surface runoff due to the concretization of surfaces, thereby raising the potential for flooding. The CA–Markov model projection suggests an increased flood risk, with construction and agriculture likely to dominate future land use.
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